By Antony Froggatt Senior Research Fellow, Chatham HouseThe Fukushima accident has highlighted one of the most important issues concerning nuclear power - that of safety and risk.
The accepted wisdom has been that the consequences of a catastrophic nuclear accident may be large, but that the frequency is low.
The industry and nuclear regulators calculate this on the basis of the likelihood of an accident for any one operating year. In the case of the design of the first four reactors at Fukushima, the Japanese Nuclear Energy Safety Organization estimated in 2002: "The frequency of occurrence of a core damage accident is 1/100,000 or less per one year for one reactor and the frequency of occurrence of an accident leading to containment damage is 1/1,000,000 or less per one year for one reactor."
Given that only a few decades, rather than millennia separate the accidents at Fukushima, Chernobyl and Three Mile Island (which were also thought to be at minimal risk of core damage) it is clear that nuclear operators and/or regulators are significantly underestimating the inherent risks associated with nuclear technology.
Viewpoint: Fukushima makes case for renewable energy - BBC
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